مـحمد خــواجــوئــى

ISS* Troika and Crisis Management in Lebanon

Thursday, 11 November 2010

Mohammad Khajouei
Middle East Studies Expert

If conflicts and differences characterize one side of the politics coin, the other flip side is interaction and cooperation.I

This is also true about relations among Middle Eastern countries. Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and between Saudi Arabia and Syria in recent years attest to this fact. Now, it seems the time has come for interaction. Recent developments in Lebanon have worked as a catalyst to get Tehran, Damascus and Riyadh closer together, making all three countries choose for interaction instead of conflict. I

I• Lebanon as raison d’être of ISS troika

Saudi, Iranian and Syrian officials have been engaged in bilateral and trilateral consultations and meetings in the past weeks and days with the most important axis of those consultations being fateful developments in Lebanon.I

Lebanon is going through dire straits. The assassination of Rafiq Hariri and evidence showing that the west is using it as a means to achieve its political ends is intensifying political disputes in this plural country and many analysts are concerned that such disputes may finally cause a sudden explosion in political environment of Lebanon and usher the country into another period of deadly civil wars. I

However, influential regional players like the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia have decided to work hand in hand in order to prevent sudden eruption of hostilities and restore calm by logical management of the existing turbulent ambiance in that country. I

I• A intermediate solution, the best remedy to situation in Lebanon

Consultations among Iranian, Syrian and Saudi leaders, including phone calls put by the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran to his counterparts in Syria and Saudi Arabia; recent meetings between Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad; as well as bilateral negotiations among Roknabadi, Al-Asiri, and Abdolkarim Ali, ambassadors of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria in Beirut, are just few instances of extensive consultations among three regional players focused on the situation in Lebanon. I

Emphasis on protecting security and stability in Lebanon, necessity of cooperation and collaboration among all Lebanese groups, as well as necessity of finding diplomatic ways to problems and declaring support by those countries for Lebanon were major outcomes of those meetings. I

Although no final agreement has been reached yet on how these countries are going to interact with their political allies in Lebanon when the tribunal investigating Hariri’s assassination hands down its verdict, all signs indicate that top officials of three countries are trying to find an intermediate way which would be satisfactory to all involved parties in order to prevent a hostile turn of events which would be to the detriment of all political players in Lebanon. I

Therefore, the three countries, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia, have temporarily forgotten about their differences and are banking on common interests in Lebanon. This has increased contacts among three countries’ officials in the past weeks and days to reach a balanced solution. It seems that such meetings and consultations, which aim to bring the three countries’ positions closer in order to enable them manage the existing and future developments in Lebanon, will help to prevent chaos in that country which will certainly endanger political interests of the aforesaid states. I

I• Looking at Lebanon in the light of national interests

There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria look at Lebanon’s developments in the light of their national interests. However, it is noteworthy that firstly, these countries are defining their national interests within framework of cooperation and secondly, their national interests call for stability and security in Lebanon, not the opposite. I

It is very important for the Islamic Republic of Iran to prevent the west from resorting to international tribunal on Hariri to undermine anti-Israeli resistance in Lebanon and the whole region. Iran knows that more proximity among regional countries can defuse US efforts to put more pressure on Tehran and restrict its maneuvering room. I

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is concerned about escalation of disputes among the Lebanese groups which will ultimately imbalance the situation and lead to collapse of Hariri’s government, which is a close ally of Saudi Arabia. As a result, Saudis will lose their influence in Lebanon. Although Saudi Arabia has regularly supported the international tribunal investigating Hariri’s assassination, perhaps, Saudi officials are now against revelation of certain evidence which proves that the tribunal has worked along political lines. Saudi officials have reached the conclusion that it is to their best interests not to continue support for the court. Riyadh is well aware that by working with Iran and Syria to manage developments in Lebanon, it will be in a better position to play a part in solving other regional problems in Iraq and Palestine. I

Syria is also trying to use this opportunity to collaborate more with Iran and Saudi Arabia and rebuild its marred credibility in Lebanon and the region. I

It is obvious that such trilateral cooperation will be accompanied with problems and challenges the most important of which is the negative role of the United States and Israel in Lebanon. It is now quite evident that by supporting the international tribunal, both the Americans and Israelis are trying to use it as a tool to achieve their goals in Lebanon, undermine and disarm Hezbollah and put more pressure on Iran. I

I• A model for endogenous regional management

If Iran – Syria – Saudi troika managed to reach positive agreements on developments in Lebanon, it would not only head off a possible crisis in the region, but may serve as a good model for endogenous management of regional crises. It is noteworthy that such cooperation will not be based on maximum expectations, but will be rather based on commonalties and suitable crisis management. I

The Middle East has been suffering from a major problem in recent years, which is absence of a collective mechanism for regional crisis management and this has led to intervention from transregional players whose result has been nothing, but more tension and divergence in the region. I

We must wait and see whether ISS troika will be able to overcome the existing problems and save Lebanon from further crisis. I

Notes: I
I*ISS here stands for Iran – Syria – Saudi